What’s up everybody! This is Thomas Bahamas and you are here for episode number 36 of Solana Weekly. Here to drop some alpha on what's going on and where we're going. This was an insane week in the EVM world and it looks like Eth Defi could just all implode. But we’re still thriving in SOL and got a lot to go through. I’m going to get into some moon math and see if the Twitter consensus of Sol hitting $500 in 2025 has any real chance of happening. Just call me a Solana Moon Boi.
To the market:
Sol Price: $23.11 with an overall decrease of 7.26% on the week. No bad news, just a shaky market. Eth is catching grenades and we’re getting some shrapnel. With the potential death of ETH defi, I’d say overall we’re looking pretty good.
SolEth- .01143 - with an overall decrease of 6.42%, WHY IS THIS HAPPENING TO US? Eth shakes the market, we go down. I don’t like it. But on Eth they had some fun. CRV got hacked, they returned the funds, the founder has $100 mill max loaned out in defi and almost got liquidated, Justin Sun came in and bought some, Coinbase launched their L2 Base, and a new token titled Bald and it went up insanely, then rugged, and then derugged. Then their dex leetswap got exploited too. My Coin stocks down bad, not a god launch. Someone close to SBF seems to be behind bald too.
SolBtc - down 4.6% on the week. So down vs the market and we hate to see it.
Alright let’s get to the market and to some moon math.
The Solana narrative is here and everyone seems to be on board with Solana, many seeing it hitting somewhere around $500 by 2025 and let’s see how we can get there.
BTC Halvening - We’ve got a 2024 halvening coming up and historically it’s a massive catalyst for a bull run. The TLDR is that miner’s will receive half the amount of BTC for mining new blocks and the issuance of new Bitcoins has now dropped. This lowers supply and historically makes for moon. % increase in the last 3 are 10,000%, 3,000%, and 700%. So it’s looking pretty good. The average of these is 4,566%. So that would put BTC at $1,329,296. Honestly that’s not going to happen, but bitcoiners will seriously use this type of math lmao. Let’s say it 7x’s, we’d be at $204,211 per BTC. If we hold the same level of SolBTC, Sol would be at $161.94. Now if it outpaces BTC like we have been talking about by a multiple of let’s say 3, we would be at $500. That doesn’t sound insane, especially if we have sufficient BTC liquidity on Solana. Jump pulls through and we have TBTC, or WBTC liquidity soars up because if BTC really get’s that high, the fees would be out of this world and it would need a different layer to be traded. So that’s 1 way.
I think the Halvening, combined with the ETF narrative could be huge. It seems to me like the ETF is a when it’s going to happen now and not an if. This literally opens the floodgates to traditional investors getting access to buying Bitcoin. Billions of dollars that have been on the sidelines that want to follow their favorite traders that have been pushing BTC and can’t get in will now be in there. Again, we don’t need Bitcoin to get to 200k for Sol to get to $500, but the more people getting involved in crypto grows the whole pie, and Solana will outpace BTC’s growth by multiples.
Eth moon’s, Solana gains. The .1 narrative that Z has brought up. BTC goes up, Eth goes up, Sol goes up is still in play. But we look at this by year now instead of week. If Eth goes to 10k, Solana has the potential to get to 8x vs Eth and get to .1 eth and be 1k/ coin. Eth fees would be absurd, L2’s fees would be absurd, the Solana narrative would be in full effect. Let’s say that doesn’t happen, but we get Eth to 5k, Sol at .1 Eth would put it at $500. Let’s say Eth goes to 10k, but we only get up to .05 Et, we get Sol at $500.
These are all pretty moon mathy scenarios, but all have potential. We are still finding product market fit, still early, and it’s needed to look at the big picture and stop trying to long the bottom looking at a 1 minute chart. The big picture is stack some Sol, if you want to hedge, stack some eth and btc as well. To bring thing’s back to reality and get the full math going. I’m going to predict a 3x from this current level and say $69 by 2024 or I cut it off. Just kidding, but $69 is my call end of year and that feels conservative.
A touch on some other news:
bSol - airdrop szn has begun
Kanpai pandas dropping soon on Solana. Think it’s huge because it brings eth to sol.
Raffling Rolex’s on Famous Foxes Raffles - insane.
Bonk - SVBonk, some sort of lottery ticket scheme, someone took down 50k.
Thanks again for joining me here on Solana Weekly, if you check my Twitter we’re going Soylana Manlet Weekly for a bit to bring out the real moon boi.
Share this post